The morning, in six stories.

Riyadh airport hit again as Iran escalation deepens

A projectile struck the passenger terminal Sunday, less than 24 hours after a Houthi missile killed at least 12 and wounded more than 300. Bloomberg’s Monday edition says Trump is ruling out an Iran attack for now, while U.S. forces disabled a ship trying to run Iran’s Gulf of Oman blockade.

The scale is the story. Saturday’s strike was the deadliest in the kingdom in more than a decade — 12 dead, over 300 wounded — and it arrived with no warning alert, forcing every flight to divert and operations to suspend at an airport serving a city of eight million. The Houthi media office claimed it had “shut down” the airport; Flightradar24 counted 322 cancelled and 185 delayed flights. Then Sunday brought a second Riyadh strike (one more killed, 11 injured) plus a “direct” hit on Dammam’s King Fahd airport — one of four ballistic-missile, cruise-missile and drone operations in 24 hours against airports and energy infrastructure, per Saudi regulator GACA (via FlightGlobal and Argus). That escalation ladder is what Trump is stepping back from — while U.S. forces quietly disabled a cargo ship attempting to run Iran’s Gulf of Oman blockade. Oil traders have noticed: Brent touched $105.63 over the weekend before easing — and Sunday’s addition of energy infrastructure to the target list says the risk premium is earned, not reflexive. If you’re flying the Gulf this week, rebook before the airline does it for you.

Stelco proceeds with up to 500 Hamilton layoffs

Stelco says the cuts do not breach its Investment Canada Act undertakings and is defying Ottawa’s five-day ultimatum and threat of legal action. The United Steelworkers says layoffs have already begun.

Stelco’s answer is legal, not sentimental. President and general counsel Paul Simon wrote to Industry Minister Mélanie Joly that “your representation that Stelco’s planned layoffs cause it to breach its undertakings is false,” arguing the undertakings never required avoiding layoffs or holding headcount above a daily floor — and that ICA history has consistently allowed renegotiation when circumstances change (read: U.S. tariffs). Ottawa reads it differently: Joly’s October 5 letter voiced “extreme disappointment,” gave the company five business days to show compliance, and points to undertakings to keep at least as many unionized employees — and most non-union staff — as at the 2024 deal announcement. The stakes under ICA section 39: if the minister believes an undertaking was breached, she can demand compliance or take the investor to court. The cuts, announced September 28 across Hamilton and Nanticoke, were blamed on elevated U.S. tariffs making the plants unprofitable. Watch this one: the ruling here sets the precedent for whether Ottawa’s foreign-takeover job promises have any teeth at all.

Referendum week opens under a foreign-interference cloud

Advance voting opens this week as a Globe investigation reports Alberta separatists met Republican operatives in Washington and offered fresh water and oil for U.S. support. NDP MP Heather McPherson requested an emergency parliamentary debate.

The Globe’s reporting (Carrie Tait, with Grant Robertson and Nathan Vanderklippe) is more brazen than “meetings”: Republican strategists were on the ground in Alberta this year advising separatists on voter-targeting technology, while separatist leaders travelled to Washington, met the U.S. State Department, and offered Alberta’s crown assets — access to fresh water and royalties on crude oil — in exchange for American help achieving independence. Ideas floated in those talks even included a Pacific-coast oil route through Washington state and Alberta adopting the U.S. dollar. One institutional answer came back fast: McPherson’s request for an emergency Commons debate on foreign interference was denied. Caveat, honestly held: the Globe’s full investigation is paywalled, so these details come via attributed secondary summaries (the Globe’s own Decibel podcast transcript, Daveberta) and are reported-not-verified at quote level. The independence question sits on a ten-question ballot October 19; advance voting opens this week.

The working-reader takeaway: October 19 is no longer a domestic vote to skim. A foreign-backed independence bid changes campaign budgets, polling volatility and boardroom contingency planning alike — if you advise clients or run teams in Alberta, a State Department headline now belongs in your risk deck.

Trump and Rubio weigh Guilfoyle’s future

Signal messages reviewed by the Wall Street Journal show Ambassador Kimberly Guilfoyle pressed donor Eric Deters for $100,000 sent directly to American Express before her confirmation hearing. Deters declined, her lawyer disputes the messages’ authenticity and AP says a decision may come this week.

The AP follow-up moved this from scandal to exit watch: a senior U.S. official said Trump and Rubio are “extremely unhappy” with Guilfoyle’s actions, with a decision expected after Monday’s Columbus Day holiday — and the State Department’s inspector general is now probing the Journal’s allegations, which stretch beyond the $100,000 ask to reported threats against a host-country official and improper gifts. In public accounts of the Journal’s reporting, Guilfoyle told donor Eric Deters that wiring the money straight to American Express “won’t show up anywhere” and pressed him repeatedly to act the same day; Deters declined. Her lawyer disputes the messages’ authenticity. The timing is the tell: six days before her July 2025 confirmation hearing is exactly when leverage is worth most, which is why the IG probe — not the headlines — is the real fuse. Compliance readers, take the pattern: an ask made inside the confirmation window is what investigators and reporters will now hunt for in every ambassador vetting — debts plus a donor contact list is a question, not a coincidence.

Futures rise as oil retreats; bank earnings loom

S&P 500 futures rose about 0.3% as Brent fell 0.8% to roughly $103.91 after touching $105.63 over the weekend. JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs report Tuesday, Bank of America Wednesday; cash Treasuries are closed for Columbus Day.